Global economy in 2014

The 2014 global economy is likely to see a reemergence of the post-crisis pattern of relatively high growth in the developing economies, a continuation of real growth in the United States, and very low growth in Europe.

ACCORDING to the forecasts of the Economist Intelligence Unit, the world’s five fastest-growing economies in 2014 will be South Sudan, Mongolia, Macau, Sierra Leone and Turkmenistan. Notably, China is absent.

Nevertheless, China is Mongolia’s biggest export market. Mongolia’s mines (not its large numbers of goats) will help push GDP growth to 15% in 2014. Reports suggest the country’s mineral deposits may be worth more than $1.3 trillion: an exciting possibility for Mongolia’s 2.8m people.

Macau also depends on China for its prosperity. As a special administrative region, it entices tourists bent on gambling, many of them Chinese. Punters will wager around $50 billion in 2014, nearly ten times more than a decade earlier and far more than in Las Vegas.

South Sudan's position at the top of the list is controversial in many ways. Its forecasted 35% growth this year may take it only some of the way back to levels of prosperity it enjoyed before oil production stopped in 2012. But the world’s youngest independent country is currently in turmoil: a rupture in mid-December between President Salva Kiir and his former vice-president, Riek Machar, has triggered violence. If Mr Machar’s intentions are to fight over South Sudan’s oil production infrastructure, the country may see slower growth, and much destruction, in 2014.

The only missing ingredient to a stronger economy is confidence. It is hard to know what will lift spirits, but with the pain of the Great Recession diminishing and Washington's standoff expected to fall off the front pages, chances are growing that this will happen in 2014.